Dynamic Changes and Driving Force of Ecosystem Services Values Under Land Use/Land Cover Scenarios in Nanning, China

A comprehensive understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of changes in ecosystem services, along with their driving factors, is crucial for managing ecosystems effectively and ensuring sustainable development in the area. Intense human activities and rapid urbanization have led to frequent land use/cover changes. Nanning, as a rapidly developing city, has received increasing attention for its ecosystem services. This research assesses the valuation of ecosystem services by employing the equivalent factor approach, utilizing land use data from Nanning City spanning the period from 2000 to 2020. It analyzes the spatial and temporal dynamics of these services and identifies key drivers through the application of a GeoDetector model. The results show the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, forests were the predominant ecosystem in Nanning City. During this period, significant land type conversions occurred, with the largest outflow from arable land and the largest inflow to construction land. (2) Over the 20 years, the aggregate value of ecosystem services (ESV) in Nanning exhibited a declining trend, culminating in a net reduction of USD 1056.8 million. Forest land ESVs constituted the largest proportion of the total value, exceeding 59%. Among the individual ESVs, hydrological regulation and climate regulation were the predominant services, collectively accounting for over 48% of the total value, with hydrological regulation contributing 20.7% and climate regulation 27.7%. (3) The ESVs in Nanning City exhibit pronounced spatial differentiation, with higher values concentrated in the central regions and lower values in peripheral zones. Notably, the high-value zones are experiencing a reduction in size, while the low-value zones are progressively expanding. (4) The findings from the GeoDetector analysis indicate that soil organic matter, urbanization rate, annual sunshine, financial expenditure, and population density are the primary determinants affecting ESV. Furthermore, the explanatory power of these influencing factors is substantially increased following interactive detection. This research provides a scientific basis for developing land management strategies and policies in Nanning City and holds substantial significance for advancing sustainable regional development.