An AutoML-Powered Analysis Framework for Forest Fire Forecasting: Adapting to Climate Change Dynamics

Wildfires pose a serious threat to ecosystems and human safety, and with the backdrop of global climate change, the prediction of forest fires has become increasingly important. Traditional machine learning methods face challenges in forest fire prediction, such as difficulty identifying feature parameters, manual intervention in model selection, and hyperparameter tuning, which affect prediction accuracy and efficiency. This study proposes an analytical framework for forest fire prediction based on Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) technology to address the challenges traditional machine learning methods face in forest fire prediction. We collected meteorological, topographical, and vegetation data from Guangxi Province, with meteorological data covering 1994 to 2023, providing comprehensive background information for our prediction model. Using the prediction model, which was constructed with the AutoGluon framework, the experimental results indicate that models under the AutoGluon framework (e.g., KNeighborsDist classifier) significantly outperform traditional machine learning models in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-Score, with the highest accuracy rate reaching 0.960. Model error analysis shows that models under the AutoGluon framework perform better in error control. This study provides an efficient and accurate method for forest fire prediction, which is of great significance for decision-making in forest fire management and for protecting forest resources and ecological security.