Simulation and Prediction of Thermokarst Lake Surface Temperature Changes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Thermokarst lakes are shallow bodies of freshwater that develop in permafrost regions, and they are an essential focus of international permafrost research. However, research regarding the mechanisms driving temperature fluctuations in thermokarst lakes and the factors that influence these changes is limited. We aimed to analyze seasonal variations in the surface water temperature, clarify historical trends in the phenological characteristics of lake ice, and predict future temperature changes in surface water of the thermokarst lakes using the air2water model. The results indicated that in comparison with air temperature, the thermokarst lake’s surface water temperature showed a certain lag and significantly higher values in the warm season. The warming rate of the thermokarst lake’s average surface water temperature based on historical data from 1957 to 2022 was 0.21 °C per decade, with a notably higher rate in August (0.42 °C per decade) than in other months. Furthermore, the ice-covered period steadily decreased by 2.12 d per decade. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 projections, by 2100, the surface water temperatures of thermokarst lakes during the warm season are projected to increase by 0.38, 0.46, and 2.82 °C (under scenarios SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), respectively. Compared with typical tectonic lakes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, thermokarst lakes have higher average surface water temperatures during ice-free periods, and they exhibit a higher warming rate (0.21 °C per decade). These results elucidate the response mechanisms of thermokarst lakes’ surface water temperature and the phenological characteristics of lake ice in response to climate change.