LCLN-CA: A Survival Regression Analysis-Based Prediction Method for Catechin Content in Yunnan Sun-Dried Tea

Catechins are pivotal determinants of tea quality, with soil environmental factors playing a crucial role in the synthesis and accumulation of these compounds. To investigate the impact of changes in tea garden soil environments on the catechin content in sun-dried tea, this study measured the catechin content in soil samples and corresponding tea leaves from Nanhua, Yunnan, China. By integrating the variations in catechin content with those of 17 soil factors and employing COX regression factor analysis, it was found that pH, organic matter (OM), fluoride, arsenic (As), and chromium (Cr) were significantly correlated with catechin content (p < 0.05). Further, using the LASSO regression for variable selection, a model named LCLN-CA was constructed with four variables including pH, OM, fluoride, and As. The LCLN-CA model demonstrated high fitting accuracy with AUC values of 0.674, 0.784, and 0.749 for catechin content intervals of CA ≤ 10%, 10% < CA ≤ 20%, and 20% < CA ≤ 30% in the training set, respectively. The validation set showed AUC values of 0.630, 0.756, and 0.723, respectively, indicating a well-calibrated curve. Based on the LCLN-CA model and the DynNom framework, a visual prediction system for catechin content in Yunnan sun-dried tea was developed. External validation with a test dataset achieved an Accuracy of 0.870. This study explored the relationship between soil-related factors and variations in catechin content, paving a new way for the prediction of catechin content in tea and enhancing the practical application value of artificial intelligence technology in agricultural production.