Morocco’s Economic Prospects: A Dynamic ARDL Simulation on Global Value Chain Integration

Abstract This paper examines how Morocco’s integration into global value chains (GVCs) impacts its economic development, addressing a critical gap in the literature on developing economies. While GVCs have transformed international trade over the past two decades and created new industrialisation opportunities, their developmental impact varies significantly across countries. Building on previous research, our study fills a significant gap by conducting a comprehensive analysis of Morocco’s GVC participation using a dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) simulation methodology from 1990 to 2018, examining the relationship between various GVC integration measures and GDP per capita. The empirical analysis reveals three key findings : backward linkages through foreign value added in exports drive long-term economic development ; domestic value added in exports generates significant positive long-run growth effects ; and forward linkages through indirect value added in exports produce both short-run and long-run economic benefits. These results demonstrate that Morocco’s strategic GVC integration has been fundamental to its economic development. In light of these findings, policy implications are drawn to enhance Morocco’s global competitiveness and optimize development benefits through targeted GVC participation strategies. The research emphasizes how balanced integration across different value chain linkages promotes sustainable economic growth in developing countries.