Study on ice shedding mode of transmission conductors based on Monte Carlo method

Ice shedding from transmission conductors can trigger significant dynamic responses, potentially leading to interphase flashovers and damage to power structures. To accurately estimate these dynamic responses, it is essential to determine a practical ice shedding mode and its corresponding shedding rate. This study investigates a more reasonable ice shedding mode for a single-span transmission line using the Monte Carlo method and kernel density estimation. Inverse transform sampling was employed to simulate the initial ice shedding of a conductor under the influence of external loads. The impact of initial ice shedding on remaining ice and the variations in impact due to differences in the spatial location of the unshed ice were considered. The Monte Carlo method was used to generate a sample of 1 million shedding modes for the single-span conductor. The ice shedding rate for these samples, with a 95% confidence level, was derived using kernel density estimation, and a formula for calculating the shedding rate was provided. This paper ultimately develops a more reasonable ice shedding mode and shedding rate compared to current design standards, offering valuable reference points for the structural design of transmission lines.