Distributed new energy generation prediction method in DN based on FOEO grey prediction model

In view of the problem that the existing grey prediction model (GPM) is difficult to fully adapt to the expanding practical application scenarios. In this paper, a new distributed new energy generation forecasting method in distribution network (DN) based on fractional order extended operator (FOEO) grey forecasting model is proposed. Firstly, the GPM of FOEO is constructed, and the fractional order accumulation generation operator and fractional order subtraction generation operator are used to process the data. Secondly, the solution method of the prediction model is given. Then, the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method are verified by comparing the prediction method proposed in this paper with the traditional grey prediction method. Finally, the generation of distributed new energy in a regional DN during the accelerated transition period (2024-2030) in China is predicted, and the prediction data can provide reference for the construction of distributed new energy in the DN in the future.