Reliability Evaluation of Security and Stability Control System in Power Grid Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

The control and safety technologies of the power grid are crucial for its overall security and reliability. Consequently, the reliability of the security and stability control system (SSCS) has become a core concern in the industry because it serves as the second line of defense for the power grid. However, existing methods for quantitatively evaluating the reliability of SSCS are still immature. Therefore, A reliability evaluation method for SSCS based on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is proposed in this paper, which can quantitatively evaluate the dynamic temporal issues during system operation. First, the hierarchical structure and failure modes of the SSCS are analyzed, and a fault tree model for the SSCS is established. Then, using the dynamic fault tree as a bridge, a DBN model is derived from the fault tree. Finally, a reliability evaluation method of the SSCS is built by proposing interval-valued fuzzy numbers to address the issue of insufficient component failure data. Case studies are performed to verify the validity and accuracy of this method.