What explains the uneven uptake of forest certification at the global level? New evidence from a panel-data analysis

• Factors affecting uptake of forest certification (FC) are tested empirically. • Data for a large panel of 150 countries from 2002 to 2020 is used. • FC adoption is positively associated with quality of governance, income levels and forest products exports. • Environmental NGOs also play an important role in FC uptake, with clear differences between FSC and PEFC certification. Currently, more than 10 % of the global forest area is certified. However, uptake of forest management certification has been highly uneven throughout the world, and relatively little is still known about the generic factors that promote or inhibit its adoption. Based on an extensive literature review, a number of hypotheses are developed on the relationship between different demand-side and supply-side variables and the uptake of forest certification. These hypotheses are then tested using econometric estimation methods with data for a large panel of 150 countries from 2002 to 2020, focusing on the two most widespread schemes, the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and the Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC). It is found that both FSC and PEFC certification density are positively and significantly correlated with different dimensions of governance, GDP per capita, the share of forest products exports to Europe and the general export orientation of the forest-based sector. Novel to the literature, this study also provides evidence of the important role of environmental NGOs for forest certification, with clear differences between FSC and PEFC certification: while there is a positive and significant correlation between the number of environmental NGOs and FSC certification density, the environmental NGO variable is negatively and significantly associated with PEFC certification density. The paper finishes with discussing a number of important implications of the findings for policy makers tasked with accelerating the implementation of forest certification schemes.