Developmental milestones and terrorism: age-linked variations in risk assessment

Purpose Against a backdrop of an increasingly younger terrorist cohort within His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service, this study aims to explore the relationship between age and various Extremism Risk Guidance 22+ (ERG22+) assessment outcomes. Design/methodology/approach A database of 490 individuals was developed by coding content of ERG22+ reports from 2010 to 2021, equating to nearly all cases in England and Wales across this time period. Socio-demographic information, offending histories, online activities and risk factors were coded for all individuals. This study focuses on 465 individuals convicted of terrorist/terrorist-related offending, with statistical analyses used to compare three age groups: “20 and under” (61 cases), 21–25 (133 cases) and “26 and over” (271 cases). Findings Significant associations were found between presence of certain behaviours/characteristics and age groups. For those aged 20 and under, a heightened propensity for excitement, comradeship and adventure, along with greater susceptibility to influence and need for status were generally key to offending pathways, with a diminished likelihood of a prior criminal history. Of the three ERG22+ dimensions, findings indicate a weak but significant negative correlation between age and engagement levels. Practical implications Recommendations include ensuring extremism risk assessments reflect age-specific behaviours and tendencies, that interventions are tailored to address common age-related vulnerabilities, and the need for age-specific policies to support and manage children and young adults within the counter-terrorism space. Originality/value These novel findings point towards notable developmental milestones in adolescence, affecting behavioural tendencies and risk. This underscores the importance of age as a determinant when interpreting extremism risk assessments.