Evaluating multi-hazard preparedness for a major earthquake: A case study of Tabriz city (NW Iran)

Tabriz, a key economic and political hub in Iran, is highly susceptible to a range of natural hazards, particularly earthquakes and landslides. This study develops a multi-hazard risk scenario – combining earthquake, triggered landslides, and their cascading impacts on road transportation – to assess the potential impact of a 7.3 magnitude earthquake on the city's infrastructure and emergency response systems. Using a GIS-based hazard model integrated with demographic and structural data, we analysed the impacts of earthquakes and landslides on road accessibility, mortality rates, and the effectiveness of disaster relief efforts. The findings reveal that Tabriz's emergency response capabilities and main roads, particularly in the northern districts, would be critically impacted by both the earthquake and subsequent landslides, resulting in significant delays in rescue operations and a high loss of life. Up to 30 % of the city's buildings are at risk of collapse, with the most vulnerable populations — including children, women, and low-income communities—facing the greatest risk. The projected death toll could reach 17 %, with casualties rising further if emergency response is delayed. Moreover, areas previously considered relatively safe from seismic risks may still suffer substantial damage due to landslides. This study underscores the urgent need for enhanced disaster planning and response taken into account the cascading effects of earthquake. It also highlights the importance of reinforcing urban planning, upgrading emergency infrastructure, and raising public awareness to mitigate future risks.