Entropy as a Tool for the Analysis of Stock Market Efficiency During Periods of Crisis

In the article, we analyse the problem of the efficiency market hypothesis using entropy in moments of transition from a normal economic situation to crises or slowdowns in European, Asian and US stock markets and the economy in the years 2007-2023 (2008-2009, U.S. financial sector crises; 2020-2021, Pandemic period; and the 2022-2023 period of Russia's attack on Ukraine). The following hypothesis is put forward in the article: In periods of economic slowdown and economic crises, the entropy of prices and return rates decreases. According to the principles of physics, in an isolated system, entropy increases and decreases at the moment of external intervention, similar to finance, where during crises and economic slowdowns, there is interference from governments introducing new regulations and intervening in financial markets. The article uses the Shannon entropy method. This measure, as a statistical measure, does not require the assumption of stationarity of time series or a known probability distribution, unlike classical statistical methods. Our results confirm decreased entropy in stock markets during crisis.

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Publication Details

Journal
Entropy
Published
2024-12-11
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/e26121079
Citations
7
Primary Topic
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
7.90
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article

Entropy as a Tool for the Analysis of Stock Market Efficiency During Periods of Crisis

Daniel Papla, Rafał Siedlecki
7 citations
Entropy
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
7.90
article

Entropy as a Tool for the Analysis of Stock Market Efficiency During Periods of Crisis

Daniel Papla, Rafał Siedlecki
article en
7 citations

Abstract

In the article, we analyse the problem of the efficiency market hypothesis using entropy in moments of transition from a normal economic situation to crises or slowdowns in European, Asian and US stock markets and the economy in the years 2007-2023 (2008-2009, U.S. financial sector crises; 2020-2021, Pandemic period; and the 2022-2023 period of Russia's attack on Ukraine). The following hypothesis is put forward in the article: In periods of economic slowdown and economic crises, the entropy of prices and return rates decreases. According to the principles of physics, in an isolated system, entropy increases and decreases at the moment of external intervention, similar to finance, where during crises and economic slowdowns, there is interference from governments introducing new regulations and intervening in financial markets. The article uses the Shannon entropy method. This measure, as a statistical measure, does not require the assumption of stationarity of time series or a known probability distribution, unlike classical statistical methods. Our results confirm decreased entropy in stock markets during crisis.

EntropyVol. 26(12)
Wroclaw University of Economics and Business (PL)
Openalex Percentile: Top 3%
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
7.90
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Entropy as a Tool for the Analysis of Stock Market Efficiency During Periods of Crisis — Daniel Papla, Rafał Siedlecki · Entropy (2024) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS