Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change and Assessment of Carbon Storage Based on the PLUS Model: A Case Study of the Most Livable City, Weihai, China

Analyzing and monitoring land use/cover (LULC) changes is critical for improving regional ecosystem service functions and developing strategies for long-term socio-economic development. Exploring future changes in land use and carbon storage under different scenarios is important for optimizing regional ecosystem service functions and formulating sustainable socio-economic development policies. In the present work, we evaluate LULC changes and carbon storage changes in the Rapid Urbanization Area (RUA) of Weihai City from 2000 to 2020 using satellite images. Using five Landsat images, the spatio-temporal dynamics of the LULC changes were measured, using a supervised classification algorithm of the neural net and the intensity analysis techniques in GIS. The Landsat images from 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were categorized into five main land use categories in the researched region: urban areas, woodlands, cultivated areas, bare soil, and water bodies. Our results reveal that urban areas, woodlands, and bare soil increased by about 129.63 km2 (13.29%), 53.07 km2 (5.44%), and 40.99 km2 (4.2%) from 2000 to 2020, respectively. On the contrary, the cultivated areas decreased by 218.35 km2 (22.36%) and the water bodies decreased by 5.44 km2 (0.56%). To summarize, the conversion of cultivated areas into urban areas has been the most significant transformation in the RUA during the period 2000–2020. Regarding carbon storage, in the study area, it decreased by 14.92 × 104 t from 2000 to 2020. Moreover, according to the prediction of the LULC changes for 2030 by the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, the cultivated areas and carbon storage will continue to decline. The slow increase in woodland brings good ecological benefits. But the sharp reduction in the per capita cultivated areas will bring environmental and socio-economic problems to the RUA. Therefore, it is time to strengthen the implementation of cultivated area protection policy. Monitoring and managing LULC changes are critical for establishing relationships between policy choices, regulatory measures, and future LULC operations, especially because many potential concerns remain in the RUA territories.