A New Productivity Evaluation Method for Horizontal Wells in Offshore Low-Permeability Reservoir Based on Modified Theoretical Model

In the early stages of offshore low-permeability oil field development, it is crucial to ascertain the productivity of production wells to select high-production, high-quality reservoirs, which affects the design of the development plan. Therefore, accurate evaluation of well productivity is essential. Drill Stem Testing (DST) is the only way to obtain the true productivity of offshore reservoirs, but conducting DST in offshore oilfields is extremely costly. This article introduces a novel productivity evaluation method for horizontal wells in offshore low-permeability reservoirs based on an improved theoretical model, which relieves the limitations of traditional methods. Firstly, a new horizontal well productivity evaluation theoretical model is derived, with the consideration of the effects of the threshold pressure gradient, stress sensitivity, skin factor, and formation heterogeneity on fluid flow in low-permeability reservoirs. Then, the productivity profiles are classified based on differences in the permeability distribution of horizontal well sections. Thirdly, the productivity evaluation equation is modified by calculating correction coefficients to maximize the model’s accuracy. Based on the overdetermined equation concepts and existing DST productivity data, the derived correction coefficients in this paper are x1 = 3.3182, x2 = 0.7720, and x3 = 1.0327. Finally, the proposed method is successfully applied in an offshore low-permeability reservoir with nine horizontal wells, increasing the productivity evaluation accuracy from 65.80% to 96.82% compared with the traditional Production Index (PI) method. This technology provides a novel approach to evaluating the productivity of horizontal wells in offshore low-permeability reservoirs.