Research on Interprovincial Embodied Carbon Transfer Network in China and Its Endogenous Dynamic Evolutionary Mechanism

This paper uses the multi-regional input–output model to measure China’s interprovincial embodied carbon transfer and constructs an interprovincial network; then, the temporal exponential random graph model is applied to analyze the spatial correlation characteristics and endogenous evolutionary mechanism of the network. The results show that interprovincial embodied carbon transfer relationships are increasingly close in China, but the weak symmetric accessibility between the eastern and central regions leads to less reciprocity in the embodied carbon network, and carbon emission inequality still exists. Based on the identification of networks, it is shown that the global network structures are stable, with obvious small-world characteristics and a core–periphery structure. And a structure-dependent effect and time-dependent effect also exist in the formation and evolution of the interprovincial embodied carbon transfer network in China. The popularity, multi-connectivity, and path-dependent effects among the provinces are significant, but the imperfection of interprovincial communication and the cooperation mechanism leads to the failure to form stable structures of ternary closed loops. Interprovincial embodied carbon transfer relationships tend to occur between provinces, with large differences in energy consumption structures, while geographical distance can hinder the formation of embodied carbon transfer relationships. Consequently, considering the spatial network correlation and its endogenous dynamic evolutionary mechanism, it is important to implement policies to guide coordinated carbon reduction among the provinces and to improve the fairness in embodied carbon transferring, in order to promote the fine governance of all links in the transferring process of embodied carbon.