Supporting farmers dealing with climate change: The impact of Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (<scp>PICSA</scp>) on smallholder lead farmers in Malawi

Abstract Motivation The climate crisis threatens the livelihoods and welfare of farmers in the global south. Increasing variability of weather makes it ever more important to get forecasts to farmers and help them make best use of this information. Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) is an approach that gives farmers better weather forecasts and, in lockstep with agricultural extension workers, supports farmers in interpreting forecasts to make appropriate decisions for their own farms. It has been implemented across more than 20 countries of the global south, including Malawi. Reviews and evaluations of PICSA have been positive, although it has not previously been rigorously evaluated using impact evaluation techniques. Purpose We estimate the impacts of PICSA training and meetings on lead farmers in Malawi, taking farmers in four districts where PICSA operated, and farmers in four other districts where the programme was not present. Methods We compare outcomes in farming practice, yields obtained, livelihood decisions and food security between lead farmers who participated in PICSA and those who did not. Because selection into the programme was not random, we use propensity score matching and regression adjustment to correct for potential selection bias. Findings PICSA lead farmers used seasonal forecasts to plan farm decisions, change crop activities, increase maize yields, and improve their food security. Differences between them and the control group were, in most cases, significant. Our results confirm the potential of PICSA to help farmers adapt to climate change. Policy In similar contexts, the PICSA approach could effectively support smallholders to make informed agricultural decisions, in participatory discussions, based on climate and weather information. For Malawi, the evidence suggests the programme or something similar should be continued.