A Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing: Citizen Uncertainty and Democratic Backsliding

A prominent contemporary phenomenon is “backsliding” of democratic countries into (semi-)authoritarian practices. Such episodes often unfold gradually over time in contexts where the ultimate intentions of governments are not clear. We present a model that focuses on the role of such uncertainty in backsliding. In the model, a government engages in a reform that may allow for subsequent actions that are inconsistent with the rule of law. Citizens must decide whether to replace the incumbent following the reform. A central implication of the model is that in a dynamic setting, citizen support for incumbents can give rise to democratic backsliding even if citizens are fundamentally opposed to authoritarianism. An original survey experiment conducted in Poland provides clear support for the model’s implications.