Voting and Climate Change: How an Extreme Weather Event Increased Support for a Radical-Right Incumbent in Italy

We empirically assess two contrasting predictions that disasters related to climate change raise support for (1) environmentalist parties and (2) incumbents that successfully provide disaster relief. We study the electoral effects of Vaia, a devastating storm that hit the mountainous area of northeast Italy in 2018, on European Parliament elections. We measure the storm’s material consequences combining granular data on forest disruption and municipal-level registries of damage relief. We exploit the stark variation in damage intensity between adjacent and closely similar municipalities in a stringent difference-in-differences design. The storm significantly increased support for the regional incumbent—the radical-right Lega in most affected provinces—and did not generate positive electoral returns for parties with environmentalist platforms. More research is needed to understand under which conditions exposure to extreme weather events activates support for environmentalist policy.