When Generalized Trust Matters? Impact of Industrial Tertiarization on Trade Preference Formation

Abstract Generalized trust has attracted attention as a non-material disposition that affects risk perception in political and economic international cooperation. However, its effect on public support for free trade or trade agreements has been debated. This debate centers on whether the economic impacts of trade are evident or uncertain to ordinary citizens because generalized trust operates only when trade impacts are uncertain and risk perception is crucial. However, the visibility of trade impacts varies significantly depending on the economic environment. This study explores the role of industrial tertiarization, the shift from agriculture and manufacturing to services, in altering the visibility of trade impacts. It hypothesizes that generalized trust shapes trade preferences primarily in highly tertiarized local economies. Using data from the 2016 American National Election Studies and World Values Survey Wave 7, this hypothesis was tested and confirmed. This study contributes to the literature by demonstrating that the influence of generalized trust on trade preferences varies with the level of local tertiarization. It also proposes new causal mechanisms for understanding anti-globalism in developed countries and suggests that the influence of economic impacts on trade preferences may similarly depend on local tertiarization levels.