A Trojan horse for climate policy: Assessing carbon lock-ins through the Carbon Capture and Storage-Hydrogen-Nexus in Europe

The global energy landscape is entrenched in fossil fuels, shaping modern life profoundly. Germany, a prominent example, grapples with transitioning from its fossil-fuelled infrastructure despite governmental support for decarbonization. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen appear as crucial tools in this transition. A recent partnership between Germany and Norway seeks to leverage Norway's CCS and hydrogen expertise to aid Germany's decarbonization efforts. However, CCS faces criticism for potential mitigation deterrence and carbon lock-ins, perpetuating fossil fuel reliance. This study critically analyses the Norwegian-German CCS-Hydrogen-Nexus, focusing on potential carbon lock-ins. By examining specific projects, institutional frameworks, and industry involvement, we aim to elucidate the partnership's implications for carbon lock-ins. This critical case holds significance for Europe's largest economy and offers insights applicable to CCS technology globally. We find that the current setup perpetuates existing carbon lock-ins both in Germany and Norway. Central problems are the interchangeability of blue and green hydrogen, asset specificity of pipeline and pumping infrastructure and the central role which actors from the fossil fuel industry play in the rollout of the CCS-Hydrogen-Nexus. Our concern is that this approach might entrench the energy system in a socially unjust state. EU policy on blue hydrogen emerged as a factor that helps to avoid carbon lock-ins. • Large-scale cooperation between Germany and Norway on CCS and hydrogen is on the way. • Rollout of CCS-Hydrogen-Nexus bears danger of carbon lock-ins. • “Hydrogen ready” infrastructure without clear pathways to blue and later green hydrogen is one of the main problems. • Actors from fossil fuel industry play major role developing the CCS‑hydrogen-Nexus.