Drought before fire increases tree mortality after fire

Abstract Fire and drought are expected to increase in frequency and severity in temperate forests due to climate change. To evaluate whether drought increases the likelihood of post‐fire tree mortality, we used a large database of tree survival and mortality from 32 years of wildland fires covering four dominant western North American conifers. We used Bayesian hierarchical modeling to predict the probability of individual tree mortality after fire based on species— Pinus contorta (lodgepole pine), Abies concolor (white fir), Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas‐fir), and Pinus ponderosa (ponderosa pine)—bark thickness, bark char, percentage live tree crown scorched or consumed crown volume scorch (CVS), and mean annual climatic water deficit (CWD) anomalies the year pre‐fire and fire year relative to the 1985–2015 reference period. Although crown injury was the primary determinant of tree mortality after fire, drought increased likelihood of death, with a 2‐SD increase in CWD (+115.7) resulting in a 78% increase in the probability of mortality. We assessed the crown scorch level expected to result in >50% probability of mortality under different CWD scenarios: observed CWD, CWD of +2, and +4°C warming scenarios. Increased climatic moisture stress amplified tree death, reducing the threshold that causes tree mortality across all conifers under +4°C warming, with more subtle and species‐specific reductions for the +2°C scenario. Models predicting post‐fire tree mortality are components of global and regional carbon estimates, habitat suitability assessments, and forest management planning and decision support systems. The amplifying effects of drought on post‐fire tree mortality and predicted future climates are likely to lead to higher tree mortality following fires in forested landscapes of western North America and may have cascading effects on ecosystem services and future forest resilience.