The complexity of the food transition: a social simulation perspective

This paper first discusses the complexity of a transition in the food system, taking the stance of a system-of-systems approach where cascading effects can happen. A complexity perspective is taken in explaining transitional dynamics and their limited predictability. Following that, we focus on the social and behavioural dimensions of transitions. Here we zoom in on human needs as fundamental drivers, explaining how tensions between different needs may lay at the root of individual and social tipping points. Agent based modelling is explained as a methodology to simulate these social and behavioural dynamics, offering a tool to address the human factor into modelling the food system-of-systems. It is discussed that such agent-based models should integrate different behavioural drivers and processes to be capable of modelling transitional dynamics.