Evaluating the impact of climatic factors and variability on rice production over varied seasons in irrigated rice system of peninsular India through Empirical approach

Rice is the principle and staple food crop of peninsular India, and its production is highly sensitive to climatic factors and variability. The climate change may cause considerable negative impact on rice productivity that could jeopardize food security and livelihood of smallholders. The present study investigates how the changes in mean and variability of climatic factors may impact rice yield during various rice seasons throughout the year. Panel data of districts of Cauvery Delta Region (CDR) from 2000-2022 was used for the analysis and fixed-effects regression with Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) model was employed for all three seasons viz, Kuruvai, Samba and Navarai. The results of the study showed that temperature and rainfall significantly impacted rice yields directly and demonstrated the existence of nonlinear relationship between climatic factors and yield. It also revealed intricate, season-specific correlations between rice productivity and environmental variables. The time trend used in the study indicated a significant positive increase in yield continuously through adoption of yield improvement technologies such as high yielding, resistant and climate resilient varieties. This study helps researchers and policymakers in devising proper adaptation strategies to ensure food system security in the region when the climate conditions change and helpful for predicting future productivity.