Identification of Climate Change Risks to Surface and Groundwater Resources across the Central African Republic and Resilience Measures

The extensive hydrological and hydrogeological systems across the Central African Republic (CAR) provide essential urban and rural water supplies for the populations across the country. Hydrological and hydrogeological studies during the last 20 years are extremely limited, in part due to the complex security and socio-economic context. As a result, significant uncertainties exist related to water resource availability and infrastructure management. This paper examined the recent evolution of the meteorological, hydrological, and hydrogeological regimes across CAR and the potential future impacts of climate change on surface and water resource availability. This was undertaken by analyzing the available regional hydrometry data and using regional climate change projections to evaluate changes to rainfall and evapotranspiration patterns by 2050. A lack of long-term monitoring data and operational monitoring systems prevents a detailed assessment of these risks at local levels. Although the national scale findings suggest that water resources may slightly increase over the next 40 years, significant local risks remain due to intensifying, increasingly variable rainfall, and increasing demographic pressures. The lack of functional, national-scale water resource monitoring systems contributes to the fragile resilience of the populations across CAR in the face of increased climate-associated risks. Recommendations are included for measures to help characterize and manage the potential risks in the long-term including the implementation of robust water resource monitoring systems