CREATION AND RESEARCH OF FORECASTING MODELS OF THE SPREAD AND DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES OF COVID-19

The outbreak of "pneumonia of unknown etiology" marked the beginning of a new era in global health care and public life. The disease quickly spread throughout the world, turning into a pandemic that posed a serious threat to the international community. Ukraine, like many other countries, has been seriously affected by the consequences of this pandemic. Effective prediction of the spread of COVID-19 is a key task for informing health management and making strategic decisions to minimize the consequences of the pandemic. Many studies have been conducted using different methods and approaches to predict the spread of COVID-19. However, most of these methods do not adequately take into account all aspects that may affect the spread of the disease. This paper analyzes the known methods of forecasting COVID-19, evaluates the impact of various arguments on the spread of the disease, and develops a mathematical model for forecasting. For this, data on the spread of COVID-19 in Ukraine was used.