Climate change and its impacts in extreme events in Morocco (observation, monitoring, and forecasting)

ABSTRACT Rising extreme weather events in Morocco pose a growing threat to various socioeconomic sectors. These events, including heatwaves and cold spells, are exhibiting an alarming increase in intensity, frequency, and duration. To understand this trend and its future implications, a comprehensive study is essential. So, this research investigates the link between climate change and extreme weather events. It specifically focuses on how climate change influences the occurrence and intensity of these extremes. The study employs two main phases: Phase 1 is about the historical analysis (1984–2018). This phase uses robust methods like Sen's slope test for trend estimation and Mann–Kendall test for significance to evaluate observed changes in climatic extremes. Phase 2 is about future projections (2041–2060). This phase utilizes four climate models to project future changes in thermal and rainfall extremes under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Five climate indices (Tmm, Tx90p, WSDI, PRCPTOT, and SPI) are employed for analysis. Historical analysis reveals a significant increase in hot extremes across Morocco. Rainfall extremes, however, show no significant changes in trends. Future projections for all four climate models agree on significant warming in Morocco. They also project a decrease in annual precipitation across most of the country.