Examining current regional intensity of trade in Africa: How strong are the trade linkages and implications for intra-Africa trade in the African Continental Free Trade Area

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a continent-wide free trade area which is expected to pave way for a continental customs union. This article assessed the current state and extent of intra-Africa trade in 2001-2018. The results give insights into the foundation which the current regional economic communities in Africa have put in place regarding intra- and inter-trade linkages. This is a foundation which the AfCFTA would utilise to achieve trade integration in a continent-wide economic integration arrangement that seeks to improve intra-Africa trade. Five regional groups were considered, namely Arab Maghreb Union, East African Community, the Economic Community of West African States, Economic Community of Central Africa States, and the Southern African Development Community. Intra-regional trade intensity index results show that trade within individual regional groups, and within Africa, is oriented towards respective member countries, although there is no evidence of increased inward orientation over time. Inter-regional trade intensity index results show that most regional groups trade intensively with each other, albeit at different levels. With increased market access in the AfCFTA through lower trade resistances between regional groups, inter-regional trade is expected to increase as per the volume of trade criteria in the natural trading partners hypothesis.