A Non-Linear Exploration of the Digital Economy’s Impact on Agricultural Carbon Emission Efficiency in China

As the global climate crisis intensifies, improving agricultural carbon emission efficiency has become crucial for achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs). This study investigates the complex, non-linear relationship between China’s digital economy and agricultural carbon emission efficiency, utilizing panel data from Chinese provinces spanning 2012–2022. We employ a multi-method approach, including the Super-SBM model for efficiency measurement, two-way fixed effects models, quantile regression, and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) for empirical analysis. Our findings reveal: (1) The digital economy significantly enhances agricultural carbon emission efficiency, but with distinct non-linear characteristics across different dimensions. (2) The impact varies among digital economy aspects: the digital economy foundation shows the most substantial influence, followed by the rural digital industry level, while rural digital infrastructure has a relatively minor effect. (3) A threshold effect is observed, with the digital economy’s impact more pronounced in regions with higher agricultural carbon emission efficiency. (4) GAM analysis unveils complex non-linear patterns: the rural digital industry’s impact initially decreases before increasing, the digital economy foundation shows an overall increasing trend with plateaus, and rural digital infrastructure exhibits a near-linear relationship. (5) Sensitivity analysis indicates that agricultural carbon emission efficiency is most responsive to changes in the digital economy foundation, followed by the rural digital industry level. These findings provide nuanced insights into the digital economy’s role in enhancing agricultural sustainability. We propose targeted policy recommendations, including accelerating rural digital infrastructure development, optimizing the rural digital industry structure, and implementing context-specific digital facility construction. These strategies aim to fully leverage the digital economy’s potential in improving agricultural carbon emission efficiency, contributing to China’s “dual carbon” goals and sustainable agricultural development.