The Possible Spread of The Small Hive Beetles, Aethina tumida, from Sudan and South Sudan to North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula under Different Environmental Conditions

The small hive beetles (SHBs), a serious pest to honey bee colonies, occur in Sudan/South Sudan. The objective of the present study was to investigate the possible spread of the SHBs from Soudan/South Sudan to the other Arabian countries during four time periods: present conditions, 2030, 2050, and 2070. The possible spread of the SHBs was modeled using Maxent software. The distribution maps were generated using specific datasets. The distribution maps were compared to identify the suitability of the Arabian countries for SHBs. The Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to compare the maps through the four time periods. The distribution maps showed that Sudan and South Sudan are the most suitable regions for SHBs under current conditions. Some areas especially in the Gulf countries were classified as suitable/more suitable for SHBs under future conditions. The movement of SHBs from Sudan towards the north to invade Egypt and then to other countries in north Africa or the Levant was not expected from the model maps. This can help explain the absence of this pest in Egypt thus far. The trade of bee equipment between Sudan/South Sudan to the other Arabian countries is suggested to cause the accidental introduction of these beetles to other Arabian countries.