Impact of Climate Scenarios on Small Pelagic Fisheries Along the Moroccan Part of the Alboran Sea: A Comparative Study Between the European Sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and the Atlantic Horse Mackerel (Trachurus trachurus)

Ecosystem models provide a better understanding of fish populations and their environmental impacts. In this research, data from the Moroccan main ports landing logbook, along with two climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), were used. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to analyze the relationships between landing per unit effort (LPUE), fishing effort, and environmental factors for both species. The study investigated the influence of climate scenarios on LPUE and fishing effort to project future potential landings for both species. In addition, it compared the proportional changes between 2022 and 2100, relative to the 2010-2022 average in the southern Alboran Sea. Phytoplankton was identified as the main driver of sardine LPUE, while sea level anomaly influenced Horse Mackerel LPUE. By the end of the 21st century, Sardine potential landings are projected to increase by +15% under RCP 8.5 and +80% under RCP 2.6 compared to the 2010-2022 average. In contrast, the Atlantic horse mackerel potential landings are expected to increase by +200% under RCP 2.6, while decreasing by -100% under RCP 8.5 by the end of the century. This research underscores the importance of considering environmental factors in managing small pelagic fisheries to ensure their sustainability in a changing climate.