Assessing the Long-Term Sustainability of Germanium Supply and Price Using the WORLD7 Integrated Assessment Model

Abstract The WORLD7 model was used to assess the sustainability of production and market supply of germanium. The model incorporates dynamic market dynamics, mass balance, and endogenous dynamic market prices based on supply and demand dynamics. The results suggest that there will be germanium scarcity in the near future, and a price increase is predicted. Future demand for germanium for the photovoltaic technologies can only partially be met. The total global extractable potential for germanium was estimated to be about 342,000 tons in 2022 from a geological presence of about 5.5 million tons. The major obstacle for germanium supply is the opportunity for extraction from mother metals, the availability of the required infrastructure, and low extraction yields. Germanium is extracted as a secondary metal from zinc and fly-ash today, but potential new sources are lead, copper, nickel refining residuals, and Bayer liquid from bauxite processing. The maximum germanium production rate was estimated to be about 1250 ton/year. The actual 2023 global extraction rate is about 210 ton/year. With respect to supply sustainability, germanium may suffer from a scarcity of supply and limit the application of key technologies in the future. The supply per person peaks in 2053 and declines to 2020 level by 2200. A doubling of demand above business-as-usual would imply germanium shortages in the market. The recycling rate for germanium is far too low for a circular society, and the supply situation may be significantly improved if the recycling rate can be increased substantially. The implications for the EU imaginaries indicate that four policy pathway approaches would be necessary to address the scarcity of germanium: regulation and innovation, investment in local solutions, market-driven adaptations, and community engagement/conservation.