Assessment of runoff generation capacity and total runoff contribution for different landscapes in alpine and permafrost watershed

• Glaciers, alpine meadows, cold deserts, and barrens contribute 95% of USR runoff. • Permafrost degradation causes a decrease in flood flow and an increase in low flow. • Runoff generated in response to permafrost changes varies across alpine landscapes. Alpine vegetation, cold deserts, and glacial landscapes significantly impact runoff generation and convergence in cold and alpine regions. The presence of existing mountain permafrost complicates these impacts further. To better understand the specific regulation of runoff by alpine landscapes, we analyzed the spatiotemporal capacity for runoff generation and the contributions of water from different landscape types within a typical alpine permafrost watershed: the upper reaches of the Shule River (USR) basin in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The analysis was informed by both field observations and simulations using the VIC model, which incorporated a new glacier module. We identified that glaciers, alpine meadows, cold deserts, and barren landscape zones as the four major runoff generation regions, collectively accounting for approximately 95 % of the USR runoff. The runoff depth in each landscape zone was calculated to express its “runoff generation capacity,” with an order of: glacier > cold desert > barren > alpine grassland > alpine meadow > shrub > swamp meadow. The alpine regions above 4000 m in altitude are the primary runoff generation areas, and the “runoff generation capacity” gradually decreases from high to low altitudes in the alpine basin. Due to seasonal variations in rainfall distribution, glacier melting, and permafrost thawing-freezing, the dominant landscape types contributing to runoff varied monthly. The simulated results indicate that permafrost plays an important role in runoff generation. Although permafrost degradation had a slight impact on the annual total runoff generated from each landscape zone (not taking into account of ground ice), seasonal runoff generated in each landscape exhibited significant changes in response to permafrost thawing. After permafrost completely thawed in each landscape zone, generated flood flow decreased, while low flow conversely increased, implying an enhanced water retention capacity of alpine landscapes following permafrost degradation. Additionally, the responses of runoff to permafrost changes varied across different alpine landscapes. These findings enhance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying runoff generation and convergence in cold and alpine watersheds of the Northern Hemisphere.