A parametric method to enhance decision-making in airport terminal development

Business cases and investment decisions for airports and passenger terminals are generally based on annual flight and passenger number forecasts. However, the design of a new passenger terminal is based on much shorter-term demands, typically a “peak hour”. Conventionally there are two methods for bridging the gap between annual demands and these short-term demands: a design day schedule, or a ratio-based method. There are important practical and theoretical limitations with these methods. In this paper, a complementary method is proposed that provides an improved theoretical basis for determining short-term demands and which can form part of a more informed decision-making process. Its application to a recent terminal design case is discussed. • Limitations of conventional approaches defining design basis for airport terminals. • A complementary approach suited to strategic planning is proposed. • Proposed approach demonstrates opportunity for cost savings in a case study. • Conventional and new approaches together provide richer decision-making basis. • Case study project revised the design basis with consequential reduction in capex.