An integrated framework for modeling pharmaceutical supply chains with disruptions and risk mitigation

Abstract Supply-chain disruptions have numerous causes, including criminal actions, as well as natural disasters and human errors. The complexity of modern supply chains makes it challenging to detect, mitigate, or resolve disruptions. This paper presents an integrated framework for modeling pharmaceutical supply chains (PSCs), incorporating disruptions and mitigations. Based on extensive discussions with supply chain SMEs (subject matter experts) and federal government security officials, this framework unfolds in two steps: (1) a mapping process constructs a supply chain map from a focal firm’s perspective, and (2) the supply chain map is overlaid with various types of disruptions that can occur at supply chain locations. To this end, the paper systematically classifies PSC disruptions based on historical data and expert opinion. The paper discusses various pre-disruption and post-disruption mitigations and reports gleaned insights into their efficacy. Finally, the paper discusses the generalizability of this integrated framework to other supply chains, such as medical devices and satellite solar panels.