Analysis and Future Projections of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Hindon River Basin, India Using the CA-Markov Model

Land use and land cover change is a significant issue in emerging countries. The enormous rate of population growth, industrialization, and urbanization is responsible for these developments. Monitoring and mapping of changes in land cover and land use is essential to the sustainable development and management of the area. The study attempts to track changes in LULC pattern for the years 2002, 2013, and 2023 in the Hindon River Basin, a major tributary of the Yamuna River, using remote sensing and geographic information system techniques. Images obtained from Landsat data were employed to extract historical land use and land cover maps. Additionally, the CA-Markov model was implemented to forecast future land use and land cover patterns. This study examines the historical and predicted LULC in the area. Field observations and site-specific interviews were used to confirm and determine the ground realities. High-resolution images were used to evaluate the accuracy of the classified map. According to the results, the agricultural land decreased from 60.98% in 2002 to 54.70% in 2050, while built-up areas increased from 12.95% to 21.25% during the same period. By 2050, vegetation is predicted to increase to 2.58%, whereas surface water, fallow land, barren areas, and dry water bodies are predicted to decrease to 0.58%, 18.87%, 1.20%, and 0.83%, respectively. The rapid pace of urbanization is facilitating economic growth within the country; however, this development is occurring at the expense of the natural landscape, which subsequently diminishes the overall quality of human life. In order to maintain sustainable development in the Hindon Basin, proper urban planning is essential. Important policy implications for the sustainable management of land use and conservation in the Hindon River basin are highlighted by the study’s research and findings.