Impacts of Climate Change Conditions on the Potential Distribution of <i>Anoplophora glabripennis</i> and Its Host Plants, <i>Salix babylonica</i> and <i>Salix matsudana</i>, in China

The <i>Anoplophora glabripennis</i> (Motschulsky) is a phytophagous pest that is seriously endangering <i>Salix babylonica</i> Linn. and <i>S. matsudana</i> Koidz. Poor control can damage local ecosystems, resulting in economic losses and management risks. In the context of climate change, the climatic ecological niche of organisms is no longer compatible with the surrounding environment. To mitigate the effects of climate change, some organisms respond adaptively to climate change through different mechanisms and in different ways. In this study, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to explore the potential distribution areas of <i>A. glabripennis</i> and its host plants, <i>S. babylonica</i> and <i>S. matsudana</i>, in response to current and future climate and to determine their movement routes and relative dynamics. The results show that the optimized model exhibits the lowest complexity and excellent prediction accuracy. It is important to note that both temperature and precipitation are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for <i>A. glabripennis</i> and its host plants. This is evidenced by the mean temperature of the warmest quarter and precipitation of the wettest month being the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for the host plants. Similarly, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the primary bioclimatic variables constraining the dispersal of <i>A. glabripennis</i>. Under climate change, the suitable areas of both <i>S. babylonica</i> and <i>S. matsudana</i> are declining, while the suitable areas of <i>A. glabripennis</i> are expanding in future climates. Furthermore, three species exhibited a proclivity for migration to higher latitudes in response to climate change. In conclusion, this study contributes to our understanding of the biogeographic characteristics of these <i>A. glabripennis</i>, <i>S. babylonica</i>, and <i>S. matsudana</i> and provides a basis for the formulation of timely conservation strategies to reduce the potential impacts of climate change. This is of great significance for the rational management, utilization, and protection of forest ecosystems in China.