Development of the new machine-learning approach in pipeline condition assessment prediction and optimizing rehabilitation strategies

Purpose This paper aims to outlines a model for water main rehabilitation in Kitchener, Ontario, using a machine-learning approach. Water main networks are vital infrastructure, requiring regular condition assessments to ensure consistent service. Budgets are often allocated for nondestructive testing methods, but using machine learning to predict network conditions offers cost benefits. Design/methodology/approach The study focuses on a prediction approach that includes the rehabilitation requirement model. The Decision Tree machine learning method was applied to predict water main pipe breaks in 2024. Based on the predictions, 24 pipes were identified for rehabilitation, and the appropriate Trenchless Rehabilitation Method was selected accordingly. Findings The model, applied to data from Kitchener, successfully predicted 24 water main pipe breaks for 2024. The largest pipe diameter was 1200 mm, and the longest length was 6977 m. A cost comparison, factoring in Environmental and Social (E&S) costs, showed that open-cut methods were 25% more expensive than Cured-in-Place Pipe (CIPP). When E&S costs were included, the total cost of the open-cut method increased by approximately 300% compared to sliplining. Originality/value Based on the pipe characteristics, CIPP lining and sliplining are recommended for rehabilitation by the City of Kitchener. This study presents a novel approach using Decision Tree machine learning techniques to predict pipe breaks, with a 97% prediction accuracy, making it a promising alternative to traditional models.