Comprehensive geospatial analysis of urban expansion dynamic in Lahore, Pakistan (1998–2023)

Lahore, a UNESCO city in Pakistan, is projected to rise from the sixth to the third fastest-growing city worldwide by 2030. This rapid urbanization challenges its commitment to cultural and ecological preservation, positioning it as an international case study in urbanization research. Thus, the Lahore Development Authority emphasizes the need for ongoing monitoring of urban dynamics to support effective planning and achieve sustainability targets, including Sustainable Development Goal 11. To contribute, we used high-resolution Landsat imagery to analyze the spatial diverging patterns of urban extent from 1998 to 2023 in Lahore. Additionally, we employed a Cellular Automata (CA) Markov Chain model to project urban growth over the next 25 years. As of 2023, we estimated that approximately 53.6% (92,660.9 ha) of Lahore is urbanized, while 46.4% remains unaffected by urban activities. Projections for 2048 suggest that the urban footprint may expand to 75.8% (131,031.5 ha), leaving only 24.2% of the area free from urbanization. Our analysis also revealed divergent urban expansion patterns significantly impacting local ecosystems. It showed a 31% reduction in inland water bodies, a 39.8% loss of vegetation, and a 60.1% decrease in sparse areas, all attributable to urban development. As natural landscapes are replaced by built environments, Lahore is likely facing increasing challenges that could jeopardize the city's green growth and urban ecological balance. Therefore, we urge land use managers, urban planners, and stakeholders in Pakistan to promote initiatives that enhance urban resilience, particularly through smart city planning and creating green and blue spaces. By focusing on Lahore, this study also provides valuable insights that can serve as a benchmark for other rapidly urbanizing cities facing similar challenges. • Current and Future Lahore's urban expansion is assessed through spatial analysis. • About 53.6% of Lahore is urbanized, while 46.4% remains unaffected by urban activities. • Urban footprint is projected to expand by 75.8%, with 24.2% free from urbanization. • Vegetation, sparse areas and water decreased at the expense of urban development. • Creation of green and blue spaces are recommended for Lahore urban resilience.