Resilience or Collapse? Reconstructing the Water Quality Time Series of a Tropical River Impacted by a Mine Tailings Dam Failure

The 2015 Fundão tailings dam collapse in Mariana, Brazil, was a major environmental catastrophe. Assessing its long-term effects on water quality is critical for environmental restoration and policy development. In this study, we reconstructed a 15-year time series of five water quality parameters to assess whether the collapse caused permanent changes. Using public data from the Minas Gerais Water Institute (IGAM), we fitted generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape to model long-term trends in turbidity, total solids, conductivity, pH, and dissolved oxygen. Predictor variables included daily precipitation and smooth functions for time and longitudinal distance along the river. As expected, turbidity and total solids increased sharply after the collapse; however, the mean values returned to pre-collapse levels within four years. Conductivity, which was already elevated pre-collapse, remained high following the passage of the tailings plume. Although we observed a tendency toward pre-collapse values, the long-term conductivity mean did not fully stabilize to previous levels. No clear patterns were observed for pH or dissolved oxygen. This study highlights the acute impact of the dam collapse on five water quality parameters in the Doce River and illustrates the river’s subsequent stabilization process, although other important and chronic impacts are still persistent. Long-term studies such as this provide valuable insights into the dynamics of fluvial systems.