China’s army graft probes pose credibility risks

Significance They mark a widening of President Xi Jinping’s anti-graft drive from the rocket and procurement forces to the navy. Impacts High-level PLA purges will last through 2025 as Xi modernises the military to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027. PLA instability will add to Xi’s challenges ahead of the Communist Party’s anticipated Fourth Plenum in 2025. The PLA will likely step up grey-zone activity in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, risking confrontation and miscalculation. Apparent lack of PLA readiness and stability reduce the likelihood of conflict overall.