An integrated risk-based water-food-energy nexus assessment framework for surface water operation governance

• A risk-based WFE Nexus framework supports water distribution in agriculture. • AHP-ENTROPY-WASPAS computes Nexus indicators for normal and water shortage cases. • Centralized automatic systems improve overall efficiency and water distribution. • Bayesian Network models the WFE Nexus, showing high accuracy in irrigation systems. • Framework enables sustainable water and energy management in agricultural areas. This study introduces a practical framework for risk-based modeling of the Water-Food-Energy Nexus, aimed at prioritizing surface water distribution operation systems (SWDOS) in agricultural areas. The main objective of this work was to develop a decision support system to aid decision-makers, stakeholders, dam owners, and utility companies in performing a holistic and integrated performance appraisal of SWDOS to effectively manage surface water and groundwater resources in the agricultural sector. The significant risks threatening SWDOS were identified considering the global risk report to achieve this objective. The results showed that the lowest risk values of financial losses, excessive groundwater withdrawals, increased unemployment, the disparity between the distributed surface water and demand, failure to fair surface water distribution, and improper ditch-rider performance were achieved by improving the operation system to a centralized automatic operation system- Model Predictive Control (MPC). Then the Water-Food-Energy (WFE) Nexus indicator was computed using the AHP-ENTROPY-WASPAS technique, considering individual indicators in both normal and water shortage operation scenarios. Based on the results of the WFE Nexus indicators, it can be concluded that the centralized automatic operation system (MPC) had the most efficient performance in both normal and water shortage operation scenarios. Furthermore, the SWDOS’s risk-based WFE Nexus assessment was developed utilizing the Hybrid Bayesian Network (BN) method. Application of the developed risk-based WFE Nexus assessments was investigated in Rudasht Irrigation District, based on six BN’s structure. After training and testing the model, the fifth structure provided promising results with MAPE and NRMSE values of %1.71 and %6.53, respectively. Moreover, this framework exhibited the highest value of R 2 , which was %98.49. The framework developed in this research represents the most comprehensive framework for the practical and integrated performance appraisal of SWDOS. The risk-based WFE Nexus assessment framework could enable the selection of an appropriate operational system based on the existing risks and water supply status in agricultural areas to achieve sustainable management of water and energy resources.