Estimation of Vegetation Carbon Sinks and Their Response to Land Use Intensity in the Example of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

Accurate regional carbon sequestration estimates are essential for China’s emission reduction and carbon sink enhancement efforts to address climate change. Enhancing the spatial precision of vegetation carbon sink estimates is crucial for a deeper understanding of the underlying response mechanisms, yet this remains a significant challenge. In this study, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region was selected as the study area. We employed the GF-SG (Gap filling and Savitzky–Golay filtering) model to fuse Landsat and MODIS data, generating high-resolution imagery to enhance the accuracy of NPP (Net Primary Productivity) and NEP (Net Ecosystem Productivity) estimates for this region. Subsequently, the Sen+MK model was used to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in carbon sinks. Finally, the land use intensity index, which reflects human activity disturbances, was applied, and the bivariate Moran’s spatial autocorrelation method was used to analyze the response mechanisms of carbon sinks. The results indicate that the fused GF-SG NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data provided highly accurate 30 m resolution imagery for estimating NPP and NEP. The spatial distribution of carbon sinks in the study area showed higher values in the northeastern forest regions, relatively high values in the southeastern plains, and lower values in the northwestern plateau and central urban areas. Additionally, 58.71% of the area exhibited an increasing trend, with 11.73% showing significant or strongly significant growth. A generally negative spatial correlation was observed between land use intensity and carbon sinks, with the impact of land use intensity on carbon sinks exceeding 0.3 in 2010. This study provides methodological insights for obtaining vegetation monitoring data and estimating carbon sinks in large urban agglomerations and offers scientific support for developing ecological and carbon reduction strategies in the BTH region.