Comparing Long-Term Power Sector Pathways in Viet Nam: A Simple Cost-Optimization Approach with OSeMOSYS

Viet Nam is at a critical juncture in planning for its future energy mix due to its fast-growing economy and recent climate commitments. This paper reviews the opportunities and challenges towards a clean energy transition in Viet Nam. Focusing on the power system, this study incorporates the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) to explore six different energy scenarios based on existing plans and proposed targets: (i) Power Development Plan VII (revised); (ii) Power Development Plan VIII (draft); (iii) Renewable Energy Development Strategy; (iv) Renewable-Led Pathway; (v) Net Zero; and (vi) Clean Efficient Transition. These scenarios assess trade-offs and synergies of policy decisions, offering insights into potential energy mix alternatives through 2050. Key findings highlight that a fossil fuel phase-out by 2050, supported by approximately 1100 PJ of solar technologies and electricity imports by 2050, aligns with climate commitments and ensures energy security. Energy-efficient technologies could also reduce electricity consumption by 20%, cutting costs and emissions by USD 18 billion and 37 Mton CO2e, respectively. Based on modelling, this study emphasizes renewable energy prioritization, energy efficiency, fossil fuel phase-out, and reinforced emission limits as recommendations to allow Viet Nam to achieve its climate goals. Overall, this paper provides a comprehensive assessment that enhances transparency and reproducibility, supporting the optimal pathway for the development of Viet Nam’s energy sector.