Linking Projected Changes in Seasonal Climate Predictability and ENSO Amplitude

Abstract Recent studies have shown that potential predictability and actual forecast skill have varied throughout the historical record, primarily due to natural decadal variability. In this study, we explore whether and how potential predictability is projected to change in the future as a distinct response to anthropogenic climate change. We estimate the potential predictability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as well as global surface temperature, precipitation, and upper-atmospheric circulation anomalies from 1921 to 2100, within a perfect model framework, using five coupled model large ensembles. We find that historical and projected ENSO amplitude changes generate global-scale shifts in climate predictability via ENSO-driven changes in the signal-to-noise ratio of seasonal forecasts, with a 10% change in Niño-3.4 standard deviation leading to a 14% change in globally averaged forecast skill at 12-month lead. This relationship suggests that potential predictability changes across much of the globe in the coming decades could be linked to anthropogenic climate change of ENSO. However, since current models substantially disagree on the sign and intensity of projected ENSO change, the trajectory of future global predictability changes cannot yet be determined. This problem is demonstrated by widely varying predictability changes seen across the five large ensembles, with models exhibiting a robust increase, robust decrease, or no significant change in predictability, depending upon their respective projected ENSO amplitude trends. Our results highlight the need for climate model development aimed at better capturing past forced and unforced changes to ENSO variability, which is necessary (if not sufficient) to constrain projected changes to climate predictability worldwide.