Climatic Indicators and Their Variation Trends as Conditions for Forest Flammability Hazard in the South of Tyumen Oblast

This study analyzes the forest flammability hazard in the south of Tyumen Oblast (Western Siberia, Russia) and identifies variation patterns in fire areas depending on weather and climate characteristics in 2008–2023. Using correlation analysis, we proved that the area of forest fires is primarily affected by maximum temperature, relative air humidity, and the amount of precipitation, as well as by global climate change associated with an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the maximum height of snow cover. As a rule, a year before the period of severe forest fires in the south of Tyumen Oblast, the height of snow cover is insignificant, which leads to insufficient soil moisture in the following spring, less or no time for the vegetation to enter the vegetative phase, and the forest leaf floor remaining dry and easily flammable, which contributes to an increase in the fire area. According to the estimates of the CMIP6 project climate models under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, by the end of the 21st century, a gradual increase in the number of summer temperatures above 35 °C is expected, whereas the extreme SSP5-8.5 scenario forecasts the tripling in the number of such hot days. The forecast shows an increase of fire hazardous conditions in the south of Tyumen Oblast by the late 21st century, which should be taken into account in the territory’s economic development.