Dynamic risk assessment of single accidents chain based on inter-node accident propagation probability

To address the problem of calculating single-chain risks under cascading effects of accidents chain networks, this study proposes a risk analysis model based on inter-node accident propagation probability by examining the interactions between edges and nodes. A probability model for the occurrence of accidents chains is established through the accident propagation relationships between upstream and downstream nodes. Incorporate the interrelationships among node events in the consequence severity model to compute the single-chain consequences of the accidents chain. Finally, by considering the relative vulnerability of edges, a single-chain risk analysis model is developed to quantitatively calculate the risks associated with accidents chain under cascading effects. The improved bisection method and are utilized to classify single-chain risks, and break chain theory are utilized to control the highest risks of accidents chain, providing a basis for selecting chain-breaking schemes. The study demonstrates that this model can quantitatively analyze single-chain risks in the context of cascading effects in accidents chain networks, offering a foundation for risk calculation and assisting in the selection of chain-breaking schemes and execution of emergency rescue operations in practical situations.