A methodology for resilience assessment of offshore drilling systems in harsh environments

Oil and gas are still fundamental energy for industry and society development. With the exploration and development activities moving from onshore to offshore, corresponding operation risk is associated. In particular, offshore drilling systems are operated in harsh environments like typhoon and earthquake. Therefore, it is necessary to uncover the evolution mechanism (e.g., capacity degradation and regeneration) of system performance under extreme operating conditions. In this paper, we propose a methodology for resilience assessment of offshore drilling systems. Firstly, based on Bayesian networks, we establish the risk analysis model of the target system. Subsequently, important risk-influencing factors are determined from the risk analysis model. The repair of these factors can effectively improve the system performance. Eventually, with the supplement of repair information, the dynamic Bayesian networks is established based on the former Bayesian networks. The resilience of the objective system can therefore be assessed with the support of dynamic Bayesian networks. The methodology is validated with a case study of an offshore drilling system. The results show that the proposed methodology is beneficial in revealing the evolving mechanism of system capacity in harsh environments.