Evaluating the COVID−19 impact on tourism and access routes to Spain: A counterfactual analysis

This research examines the impact of COVID-19 on Spanish international tourism, focusing on the routes of access to the country. Using data from October 2015 to March 2024, a counterfactual analysis was conducted to calculate the severity of the impact on Foreign Tourism Access to Spain by Air Transport, Road, Railway, and Maritime Transport. Benchmark series were calculated using the SARIMA model and validated with Machine Learning methods. Results show significant increases in Air and Road access post-pandemic, with even larger increases in Railway and Maritime routes, indicating early recovery trends since May 2023. These findings highlight the need for adaptive marketing strategies to align with new travel preferences for sustainable and health-conscious travel options. The charts in this study show the results of the counterfactual analysis from October 2015 to March 2024. The blue and black lines represent actual developments. From 2020 onwards, the red and yellow lines illustrate the counterfactual scenarios. The distance between the counterfactual series and the black one indicates the severity of the impact. This enables us to observe that, despite being in a strong recovery period with data surpassing pre-pandemic levels, a scenario without COVID-19 would have shown better results compared to actual developments. • Air travel reached pre-pandemic levels, showing great resilience and adaptability. • The significant increase in arrivals by train and sea reflects a shift in travel preferences. • Improvements in infrastructure and protocole against COVID-19 have boosted train and sea travel. • There is a growing preference for sustainable and health-conscious travel options. • The recovery of Spain's tourism industry demonstrates its resilience and adaptability.