Energy Policy Scenarios for Carbon Emissions in Road Passenger Transport in Austria up to 2050

The transport sector accounts for approximately 25% of CO<sub>2</sub>-emissions in the EU and Austria, primarily due to passenger car transport powered by fossil fuels. Replacing conventional cars with sustainable alternatives is crucial for reducing emissions, improving air quality, and mitigating climate change while decreasing vehicle kilometers driven. This study analyzes policy strategies for Austria’s road passenger transport sector up to 2050 to determine their potential for significant CO<sub>2 </sub>reduction. Four scenarios were modeled: Business-as-usual (current policies without major changes), phase-out of fossil fuels, tax-scenario (financial measures to reduce high-emission vehicles), and a green-policy-scenario (promotion of public transport, active mobility, and vehicle efficiency). The scenarios were modeled using a dynamic approach, considering key factors such as income, vehicle kilometers driven, vehicle power, fuel intensity, and specific CO<sub>2</sub>-emission factors. This methodology allowed for a comprehensive analysis of flow and embedded CO<sub>2</sub>-emissions. Under the green-policy scenario, CO<sub>2</sub> emissions could be reduced by over 85%, from 17 million tons in 2019 to approximately 2.5 million tons by 2050, alongside a 65% reduction in vehicle stock. The major conclusions are: (i) The total vehicle kilometers traveled and overall vehicle stock must be reduced. (ii) Focusing solely on BEVs is insufficient; a modal shift toward public transport and active mobility is essential. (iii) Public transport and active mobility must become more attractive options to foster sustainability. These steps reduce emissions and promote long-term sustainability by shifting toward greener transportation modes. By implementing these integrated strategies, Austria can make significant progress toward meeting its climate targets and creating cleaner, more sustainable environments.