A risk assessment methodology for supporting decision making on the climate proofing of electricity distribution networks

Modern electricity distribution networks are critical and highly complex infrastructures built to provide consumers with an uninterruptible and reliable power supply under normal operating conditions and common failures or expected disturbances. Although these infrastructures have attained increased reliability levels, they cannot effectively resist high-impact, low-frequency incidents, such as extreme weather events. In parallel, electricity distribution grids are aging and were designed for climate bands that are now obsolete because of the changing climate and the subsequent weather extremes; this has left infrastructure operating outside of its tolerance levels. This paper aims to provide a methodology resource for Operators to support decision-making regarding the resilience enhancement of power networks at the distribution level (not generation or transmission) in the face of meteorological disasters. More specifically, the study proposes an approach to address climate change impacts on the Hellenic Electricity Distribution Network in alignment with the European Commission’s technical guidance on the climate-proofing of infrastructure during 2021–2027, representing best practices in the field. Both a climate vulnerability and a risk assessment are performed in the distribution networks across Greece, employing IPCC’s RCP 8.5 scenario and encompassing the Information Hub for Greece’s Adaptation to Climate Change. The assessment includes reviewing related literature/historical data and conducting a climate hazard perception survey to harness technical experts' judgment of network sensitivity and climate impacts on infrastructure. The ArcMap software is used to map vulnerability and risk for the selected acute (wildfire, flood, rainfall, high wind, lightning, snowfall, heatwave) and chronic climate hazards (drought, humidity, ambient temperature rise, sea level rise, landslide, coastal erosion). Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulation process is utilized to capture the likelihood of different hazard groups and estimate the risk spread in various areas in Greece. Future research can integrate additional RCP scenarios or more updated climate projections once available. • Power distribution networks are highly susceptible to new weather extremes. • Climate resilience planning should embrace targeted remedial actions. • Climate vulnerability and risk assessment is needed to identify adaptation options. • Risk assessment can provide a spatial allocation of climate threats to the grid. • A sound methodological framework will support decisions in climate risk management.